The dollar has been incredibly strong against the Yen in recent months, giving American importers huge buying advantages but there are some strange trends emerging that will make the landscape much more difficult to understand for JDM car buyers and sellers.
The other day I was sent a post via Facebook Marketplace, which I’m always proud to say “I don’t use because I don’t have an account” Nonetheless, my lack of endorsement is not indicative of Marketplace’s efficacy, upon which we sold a Honda Element in only a few hours, and a family Tacoma in only a couple days. Back to the original point- someone sent me a Marketplace ad for a Mitsubishi Evo III with 69k kms on it, looking very fresh and original in it’s sparkling silver dress. The price attached to this car, which I will note also had the OEM lip intact, was a measly 19k. It was truly hard to believe because the last I had looked at the auctions in Japan, Evos 1,2 and 3 were selling in Japan for about that much and mostly in worse condition than this US titled example. How is this even possible? Evo 1,2,3 are more highly respected in Japan than here, where everyone wants the garish, angular look of the 5,6. More on that later though. How could this car be retailing here, with a price that represented basically free shipping, free import duties and much lower risk? It would even be inspectable in person, were one motivated.
I have a few theories about why JDM import sales in the US are declining in price and why inventory here is stacking as a result. The Evo III above, of course, is just one example but we’re seeing this with a lot of models, Subaru GC8 STI selling here in the ‘States for 15k in very nice shape, R32 GTR prices finally dropping. My examples are mostly of the Group -A type because that’s what I focus on, that’s what I’ve been tracking for 10 years.
Theory 1- (Age-my least developed theory) There’s something going on with buyer age. According to WRC fact book the biggest chunk of WRC fans are 25 to 44. To some of these people, these Group A cars are old and maybe not interesting. The young end of the spectrum was watching WRC post-group A and perhaps they’re gravitating towards newer models like the Toyota GR Yaris that more closely emulate the cars they grew up watching. Also related to age, perhaps some of the younger fans don’t have the affinity for classics because they got into rally when the legends of the time were dying, like Burns in 2005 or McRae in 2007. Everyone knows the GC8 because of McRae. There are few cars that came after Group A that are valued for their hero drivers (fight me) Another age related thing could be that there was simply other stuff to worry about around the time when the next generation could have been watching rally and dreaming about owning one of the roadgoing cars, who knows. Emerging generations also have less disposable income which could also simply explain the lack of interest in the last couple years.
From the 2023 WRC Factbook
Theory 2- (Domestic Scarcity) Suddenly the Japanese have realized that they’ve exported nearly all of their automotive history to other countries (ie: inventory in Japan is very low) And this is probably the most plausible explanation on it’s own. I have asked friends in Japan about this, my friend Ken, aka Captain Bradford who some of you may know answered emphatically: “Yes, this is a huge problem!” I’m seeing Subaru sell in Japan for more than they sell here which is amazing considering the great cost to get them here and register them. They could be going to Europe of course, likely the UK where well-loved imports have begun to rot out. Looking off-auction on classifieds like Goo.net we see very high prices on Galant VR-4, so high that it’s like an alternate universe because the Galant never got love here. One ad even said “the price is high, you have to ask” this, in a sea of 20+K USD equivalent Galants. In short, inventory here in the US is now high. Excited mid-Covid (let’s not kid, there’s no middle, we’re in this forever, but you know what I mean) buyers sought 13% + APR personal loans to finance their dream car and now, with inflation and an uncertain job market and actual (gasp) maintenance bills, they’re looking to unload on eBay and Marketplace. There’s a $14k STI RA on eBay that’s been sitting for months. Meanwhile in the UK this could be sold for 20k Sterling, easily. No one will bother with an export to make a couple thousand though… In short, car prices in Japan are higher than they are here, even for JDMs which will pinch US importers or force them to the bottom of the inventory barrel for cars that they’d never have considered before.
Theory 3- (Practicality) Right hand drive simply doesn’t work out for some people and they learn this the hard way. Also, maintenance is a challenge. Parts are becoming NLA (no longer available) at an alarming rate and if you’re not a mechanic, good service is hard to find. Some people probably didn’t completely assess the difficulty of owning a RHD, rare, imported car, nevermind maintaining one and at some point, the romance is over.
What’s next?- Something interesting will happen in two years. Japan’s offerings will converge (loosely) with US offerings. In the early 2000s we were introduced to the GD body Subaru WRX and STI, we also finally got the CT9A Evolution 8, despite it’s terrible bumpers and lack of AYC. When this happens there will be few desirable cars that people are interested in importing. If I had to project, I’d say that old, previously imported car values will climb at that point because everything will be even more rare than it is now. We might also see a generation who is less interested in cars like this. The current market is interesting because it envelops a strange period when we were all at home, going out of our minds on Bring A Trailer. That peak might be misleading our expectations. My feeling is that the ultra-rare models from this post economic bubble Japan period will always at least hold value and that the more ordinary cars will still be loved but perhaps not babied as collectors items. We’re not seeing Evo 5 and 6 hit the peaks that everyone expected many auctions are falling pretty flat. I expect the RS versions to be worth more long-term even though we’re not seeing it yet. Because you’ve read this far I’ll make some high value predictions in list form for the types of cars I’m optimistic about.
Evolution IV RS- Always bullish on this car. Low production, timeless and not showy.
Evolution V RS- another low production, super rare and captivating, better engine than above
Tommi Mak- no one should be surprised that these will always be the most valuable Mitsubishi of all time
Red, Manual Pajero Evo- again, low numbers. It’s not enough to just have a silver one now.
Subaru STI S201- mark my words this ugly S.O.B will have it’s day
Lancer Evo Wagon- in a million years this could be worth something but 5 years out is hard to predict
Galant VR-4 Evo or RS- it will take the right buyer but they’re out there. A low cost group-A entry
Cars that should have been valuable but, no, the US has no taste:
Subaru STI RA
Lancer Evo 1,2,3- don’t quite understand this. They’re more valuable than 4,5,6 in Japan but not here. Blame DSMers.
Mazda 323GTR- if you ever see one, let me know.